The Book of War is Written By Chance: Napoleon’s 1812 March and the Challenge of Using History as a Guide for Strategy
"Preparing for future warfare based on historical lessons has long been fundamental to military leadership and strategy. Field Marshal Montgomery’s observation that “rule one on page one of the book of war, is: ‘Do not march on Moscow’” belies the fact that one of the most famous marchers on Moscow rigorously studied history and yet marched on Moscow.[1] Whatever the book of war may say, Napoleon Bonaparte understood that “in war, chance is half of everything.”[2] Napoleon’s study of history and march on Moscow illustrate why even the most assiduous students of history often follow their predecessors into disaster. ..."
There is a reason why all the military academies and staff colleges have substantial history departments. The schools attended by both Napoleon and Wellington had curricula that included the study of historical campaigns. The difference is how much they believed any such “rules” applied to them. Napoleon was not just a General, but eventually the executive branch of his government, and to some of his soldiers a Demi-god. He did not consider himself overly fettered by these so-called “rules”. He very much saw himself tied to a star of destiny (and said as much), this led him to grandiose plans and mistaken assumptions. Some have said that this is diagnostic of his Narcissistic Personality Disorder. Whether you accept such a diagnosis or not, he was a gambler that visited the table of military fortune too many times. He continued to roll the dice right up until that “Voila Grouchy!” moment on the slopes of Mont St Jean and he commits his Guard. Our history shows that his army could no longer keep cashing the cheques that he was writing.